Viewing archive of söndag, 12 januari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jan 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 012 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jan 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6
X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day.
Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk,
producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class
flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were
also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became
more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two
distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new
Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot.
It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44)
make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare,
primarily from Region 242.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jan till 15 Jan
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jan 173 Prognoserat 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/008-005/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jan till 15 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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