Viewing archive of måndag, 16 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 350 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 225 (N17E23)
produced an M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio
sweeps at 16/1115 UTC. No CME was evident in LASCO imagery
following this event. Other activity included numerous C-class
flares from several regions, notably from 226 (S28E12), 227
(N07W07), and 229 (N18E37). All of today's flare producing regions
have shown some growth in size and/or magnetic complexity. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The regions discussed in
section 1A above all appear to be possible sources for isolated
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods. A gradual reduction in high speed stream effects
was apparent in data from the ACE satellite over the course of the
day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-36 hours.
Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to develop on day
two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated active and
possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three of the
forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Dec 203 Prognoserat 17 Dec-19 Dec 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 010/010-015/015-020/035
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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