Viewing archive of fredag, 6 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 340 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 214 (N12W41)
produced a C2/Sf at 06/0856 UTC. Region 214 exhibited gradual
growth in penumbral area and spot count. Region 208 (N09W24) has
shown slight decay but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 212 (N12E21) grew in spot count and has
developed into a Dao spot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 208, Region 212,
or Region 214.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sector
boundary crossing and coronal hole effects were observed late in the
day by the NASA/ACE spacecraft. At about 06/1630 UTC solar wind
velocity increased to near 410 km/s and continues a gradual rise.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels for the eighth straight day. GOES-8 values reached 8230
pfu today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The arrival of a coronal
hole and the possibility of shock effects from the M2 event on 04
November are expected to result in quiet to active conditions on day
one. Coronal hole effects should continue through day two and three
of the forecast period with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Dec till 09 Dec
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Dec 148 Prognoserat 07 Dec-09 Dec 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Dec till 09 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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