Viewing archive of torsdag, 30 maj 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 150 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 May 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973 (S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares, some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity. Also, it may have been responsible for several optically uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532 UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56) produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region 9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing filament on 27 May.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 May till 02 Jun
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       30 May 180
  Prognoserat   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        30 May 182
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 May till 02 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%

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