Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 oktober 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 284 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Oct 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9657 (N19E23) produced
a C4/SF flare at 11/0412 UTC. Region 9661 (N16E69) also produced
minor C-class flares. Limb proximity still hinders a more thorough
analysis, but this region does appear to be a moderately complex
group nearing 500 millionths of white light area. New Region 9662
(N09E42) and Region 9663 (S13E67) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to at low
to moderate levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to
unsettled conditions persisted until 11/1700 UTC when a 11 nT sudden
impulse was observed. Active to minor storming conditions have
persisted since the shock which is believed to be associated with
the 09/1113 UTC M1/2f flare and CME.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storming levels with isolated
major storm conditions through day one. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole
rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Oct till 14 Oct
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Oct 175 Prognoserat 12 Oct-14 Oct 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/022 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 025/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Oct till 14 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
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