Viewing archive of lördag, 7 april 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 097 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Apr 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single
C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the
dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots.
It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration
within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417
(S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New
Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC,
presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event
observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare
of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday
tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during
the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Apr 180 Prognoserat 08 Apr-10 Apr 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Apr 025/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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