Viewing archive of fredag, 9 februari 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Feb 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 040 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Feb 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A number of small C-class
flares occurred, including a C1/Sf at 09/1727 UTC in Region 9335
(N09W13). This sunspot group continues to decay slowly. Region 9338
(S20W02) also flared and exhibited frequent plage fluctuations. This
area is experiencing rapid emergence of new flux and the consequent
growth in sunspot size and complexity. New Regions 9346 (N18W54) and
9347 (N04E66) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from several of the active regions
currently on the visible disk but most likely in Regions 9335 and
9338. The number of new regions, recent activity near the east
limb, and current dynamics in the visible regions suggest a general
trend towards an increase in solar activity over the next few days.
However, a significant increase, to high levels or above, is not
expected.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations
from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicate that plasma and field
parameters remain at nominal levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Feb till 12 Feb
| M-klass | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Feb 162 Prognoserat 10 Feb-12 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Feb till 12 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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