Viewing archive of torsdag, 6 april 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Apr 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 097 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 APR 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S12E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/2B FLARE AT 06/0229UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
A MINOR RADIO BURST AND A TYPE II SWEEP (ESTIMATE SHOCK VELOCITY OF
700KM/S). REGION 8948 RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT IT
AND MOST OF THE OTHER 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE
SLOWLY DECLINING. REGION 8933 (N19W96) HAS QUIETLY ROTATED OFF THE
DISK. THE SMALL FILAMENT NEAR S15 E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. RETURNING REGION 8910 (N13 L=069), A MAJOR FLARE
PRODUCER LAST ROTATION, IS DUE BACK ON THE EAST LIMB LATE TOMORROW.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
SHOCK WAS OBSERVED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 06/1600UT. THE
ASSOCIATED SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 1640UT (37NT AS OBSERVED
AT SAN JUAN) AND THE FIELD HAS BEEN AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS SINCE THAT
TIME. THERE WERE MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS OBSERVED ON BOTH GOES 8 AND
GOES 10 STARTING AROUND 1800UT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOST LIKELY THE
CONSEQUENCE OF THE HALO CME OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE C9/2F FLARE AT
04/1541UT. THE SATELLITE PROTON EVENT WHICH BEGAN AT 04/2055UT,
ENDED TODAY AT 0155UT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT STORM LEVELS FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW. THE FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 APR till 09 APR
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 APR 178 Prognoserat 07 APR-09 APR 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 06 APR 185
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR 014/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR 030/033 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR 025/030-010/020-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 APR till 09 APR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 11% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 06% | 01% | 01% |
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