Viewing archive of tisdag, 16 november 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 320 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 NOV 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SIX M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3/1B FLARE AT 16/0246Z FROM
REGION 8766 (N18E31). A TYPE II AND IV SWEEP, A 360 SFU TENFLARE,
AND A PARTIAL HALO CME ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. THIS REGION,
THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL, MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
REGION 8765 (S12E06) PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 16/0710Z AND AN M1/IN AT
16/1411Z. THIS REGION IS A VERY LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX
REGION WITH TWO DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. WHITE LIGHT COVERAGE HAS NOW
EXCEEDED 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. AN M3/SN FLARE WAS
OBSERVED IN REGION 8760 (N15W81). A PARTIAL HALO CME OCCURRED WITH
THIS FLARE. NEW REGION 8770 (S14W23) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8765 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MAJOR
PROTON PRODUCING FLARE SOON. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8766. REGIONS 8759 (N12W45) AND 8760 MAY ALSO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
NEGATIVE BZ HAS PERSISTED SINCE AROUND 16/0900Z RESULTING IN THE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY 2. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FREQUENT
FLARE ACTIVITY AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 NOV till 19 NOV
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 NOV 233 Prognoserat 17 NOV-19 NOV 225/215/200 90 Day Mean 16 NOV 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV 012/012-012/012-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 NOV till 19 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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