Viewing archive of söndag, 12 september 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Sep 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 255 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 SEP 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED IN THE LOW
CATEGORY. REGION 8699 (N21E15) GREW RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SUBFLARES, A FEW OF WHICH REACHED C-CLASS. THIS
REGION DISPLAYED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE, POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8692 (S26E11)
SHOWED SOME POLARITY MIXING, BUT WAS STABLE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT
PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE DAY. A 20-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN
CENTERED AT S20W31, ERUPTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FOLLOWED THE ERUPTION, BUT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8700 (N12E81) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8699 MAY PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES,
PARTICULARLY IF ITS PRESENT RATE OF GROWTH CONTINUES. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WITH BRIEF MAJOR STORM PERIODS DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE ACE
SPACECRAFT DETECTED AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PASSAGE AT L1 AT
12/0322Z FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT EARTH AT 12/0400Z (21 NT,
AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX, CURRENTLY AT NORMAL LEVELS, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 SEP till 15 SEP
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 SEP 141 Prognoserat 13 SEP-15 SEP 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 12 SEP 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP 018/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP 018/013-018/015-018/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 SEP till 15 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 06% | 06% | 06% |
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