Viewing archive of lördag, 24 juli 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jul 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 205 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 JUL 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF
FIVE M-CLASS EVENTS. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M2 EVENTS OCCURRED AT
24/1112Z AND 24/1133Z. NEW REGION 8645 (S26E69) ROTATED ONTO THE
DISK AND PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 23/2300Z, AN M1/1N AT 24/0404Z, AND A
LONG DURATION M3/SF AT 24/0756Z. WHILE STILL NOT FULLY VISIBLE, THIS
REGION SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. IT IS
VERY NEAR THE LOCATION OF OLD REGION 8611 THAT WAS ACTIVE LAST
ROTATION. REGION 8636 (N21W13) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
OVERALL, THIS REGION WAS STABLE AND EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF
POLARITIES.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
MODERATE LEVEL. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION
8645 PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE HISTORY OF THIS AREA.
REGION 8636 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR FLARES FROM THIS REGION AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM REGION 8645.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL AND OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDED 500 KM/S.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH THE RECENT
ACTIVITY ON THE DISK AND EAST LIMB. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 JUL till 27 JUL
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 JUL 184 Prognoserat 25 JUL-27 JUL 186/189/190 90 Day Mean 24 JUL 156
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL 010/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL 009/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 JUL till 27 JUL
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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