Viewing archive of lördag, 22 november 1997
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Nov 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 326 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 NOV 1997IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8108 (N19W37) WAS GENERALLY STABLE BUT
BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SUBFLARE RATES DECREASED. A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED BUT WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. NEW REGION 8111
(N23E74) ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AS A SMALL CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP
THAT EXHIBITED SOME EXTENSIVE SURGING. WEAK PLAGE AND ACTIVE SURGING
WERE OBSERVED AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE REGION
8100 IS RETURNING.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS AND
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. AT THIS TIME, OLD REGION 8100 APPEARS TO
HAVE DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS INVISIBLE HEMISPHERE TRANSIT. AT
THIS TIME, ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AREA.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM 22/0000-0900Z.
SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED INCREASES IN VELOCITY AND DENSITY AROUND
22/0500Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM
22/0900-1800Z. IT IS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS
RELATED TO THE HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 17 NOV. THE FIELD WAS
ACTIVE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 23 NOV IN
RESPONSE TO A VERY LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT ON 19-20 NOV. ISOLATED
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY. THE FIELD SHOULD
BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 24 NOV AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON 25
NOV.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 NOV till 25 NOV
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 NOV 100 Prognoserat 23 NOV-25 NOV 103/106/108 90 Day Mean 22 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV 030/035 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 NOV till 25 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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