3-dienu prognoze

Izdots: 2024 May 14 1230 UTC
Sagatavojis ASV Tirdzniecības departaments, "NOAA", Kosmosa laikapstākļu prognozēšanas centrs un apstrādājis "SpaceWeatherLive.com"

A. "NOAA" ģeomagnētiskās aktivitātes novērošana un prognozēšana

Lielākais novērotais 3 stundu Kp indekss pēdējo 24 stundu laikā bija 3 (zemāk "NOAA" skalas līmeņi).

Lielākais paredzamais 3 stundu Kp indekss par May 14-May 16 2024 ir 5 (.67"NOAA" skala G2).

"NOAA" Kp indeksa sadalījums

             May 14       May 15       May 16
00-03UT       2.00         5.00 (G1)    2.33     
03-06UT       1.67         3.67         2.00     
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         2.67     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         2.33     
12-15UT       2.33         2.67         2.00     
15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.67     
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         3.00     
21-00UT       4.33         3.00         2.33     

Pamatojums

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 May and G1 conditions are likely on 15 May as CME influence wanes.

B. "NOAA" Saules radiācijas aktivitātes novērošana un prognozēšana

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Saules starojuma vētras prognoze uz May 14-May 16 2024

              May 14  May 15  May 16
S1 vai lielāks   99%     25%      5%

Pamatojums

S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected on 14 May with a chance on 15 May due to the eruptive potential from Region 3664.

C. "NOAA" radiosakru iztrūkumu aktivitāte un prognoze

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 14 2024 0209 UTC.

Radiosakaru iztrūkumu prognoze uz 1 $ 14-May 16 2024

              May 14        May 15        May 16
R1-R2           80%           40%           40%
R3 vai lielāks   30%           10%           10%

Pamatojums

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 14 May due to the flare potential of Region 3664. As the region rotates around the Suns W limb, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities drop to just a chance from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.