Viewing archive of fredag, 29 juli 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 29 2204 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 210 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Jul 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 792 (N11E66)
produced today's only M-class event, an M4/Sf at 2208 UTC. The event
was associated with a type II radio sweep and a fast CME that was
centered on the east limb. Region 792 also produced a C3 x-ray event
at 1732 UTC which was associated with erupting prominence material
from the east limb. Observations of Region 792 indicate a 430
millionths, compact, beta-gamma sunspot group. New Region 793
(N14E11) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (30 July - 01 August). There is also
a slight chance for a major flare from Region 792.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
from a coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues
in progress. The event, which began at 27/2300 UTC attained a new
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There appears to be an influx of
new energetic particles in response to the M4/CME event of 28/2208
UTC which is prolonging this proton event.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours (30 July). Conditions should decline to generally unsettled
for 31 July and should be quiet to unsettled for 01 August. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to continue through the
first day (30 July), but should decline thereafter unless additional
strong, eruptive events occur from Region 792.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Jul till 01 Aug
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 90% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Jul 104 Prognoserat 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/028 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Jul 017/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 010/015-007/010-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Jul till 01 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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