Viewing archive of tisdag, 17 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 351 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 226 (S18W01)
produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC. This region has continued
to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic
delta configuration in its intermediate spots. Shortly following
the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint
optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray
enhancement at 16/2336 UTC. Other flare activity included several
C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225
(N17E11). New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. A slight chance for an
isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region
226.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period
at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast
period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals
possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected
onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Dec till 20 Dec
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Dec 213 Prognoserat 18 Dec-20 Dec 205/205/195 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 015/015-020/035-018/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Dec till 20 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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