Viewing archive of söndag, 1 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 335 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
The largest of these was a C5/Sf at 1528 UTC from Region 208
(N10E49). Region 208 exhibited the brightest plage of the five
spotted groups on the disk, and it has some mixed magnetic
polarities within an overall bipolar structure. Region 207 (S19E20)
continues to be the largest region on the disk but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event over the next three days from Regions 207 and 208.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind with weakly negative Bz
continues in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic activity is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels over the next two
days. A decrease to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third
day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Dec till 04 Dec
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Dec 150 Prognoserat 02 Dec-04 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 170
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Nov 014/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Dec till 04 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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