Viewing archive of lördag, 23 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 327 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C4.6 x-ray event that
occurred at 23/0804 UTC. Region 198 (S18W25) produced multiple low
level C-class flares during the period. This region underwent no
significant changes in magnetic complexity or penumbral coverage
(520 millionths in areal coverage). The remaining numbered regions
were mostly quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Minor to major
storm conditions were experienced between 23/0300 to 0600 UTC due to
high speed solar wind resulting from the from the favorably
positioned coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Active conditions are possible (mostly at high latitudes) due to the
elevated solar wind speed through day one of the forecast period as
the effects from the coronal hole subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Nov till 26 Nov
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Nov 148 Prognoserat 24 Nov-26 Nov 150/160/165 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Nov 017/024 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Nov 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Nov till 26 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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