Viewing archive of onsdag, 30 oktober 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 303 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Oct 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
Most of the flare activity was from Region 162 (N25W82). Additional
contributions came from Region 175 (N16E44) which showed steady
growth during the past 24 hours. A 16 degree filament near S02W30
erupted between 29/2224 UTC and 30/0048 UTC. The eruption was
associated with a narrow CME from the southwest limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
M-class flares are Regions 162 and 175.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, except for an
interval of active to minor storm conditions from 0600-1200 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Oct till 02 Nov
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Oct 168 Prognoserat 31 Oct-02 Nov 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 175
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Oct 010/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Oct 014/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Oct till 02 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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