Viewing archive of måndag, 29 juli 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 210 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Jul 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44 (S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at 28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39 (S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period. Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI) at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following the SI.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Jul till 01 Aug
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       29 Jul 234
  Prognoserat   30 Jul-01 Aug  235/230/230
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  013/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Jul till 01 Aug
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%40%
Små stormförhållanden15%05%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%45%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%01%15%

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