Viewing archive of tisdag, 5 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 064 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A B9 flare
(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only
recorded flare of the period. Several Type III radio sweeps
comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period. Region
9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in
areal coverage. Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot
coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period. New Regions
9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains
geoeffective.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of
the forecast period. Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm
conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as
well. Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Mar till 08 Mar
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Mar 172 Prognoserat 06 Mar-08 Mar 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 220
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 020/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Mar till 08 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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