Viewing archive of tisdag, 17 november 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Nov 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 321 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 NOV 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8383 (S14W43) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT: A C4/SF AT 16/2153Z. ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY WERE A C4 AT 16/2316Z, AND A C2
THAT LASTED 92 MINUTES FROM 0351-0523Z. REGION 8384 (S27W23)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE. TWO
FILAMENT ERUPTIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS: A 12 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR N31E20 BETWEEN 16/1842-17/0643Z AND AN 11 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S41W50 BETWEEN 17/1723-17/1857Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SECOND DAY, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO
MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 NOV till 20 NOV
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 NOV 121 Prognoserat 18 NOV-20 NOV 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 17 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 025/030-025/035-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 NOV till 20 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 55% | 55% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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