Affichage des archives de vendredi, 7 janvier 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Jan 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 007 publié à 2200Z le 07 Jan 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Departing Region
1141 (N33, L=263) produced a B5 X-ray event at 07/1520Z as the
region rotated around the west limb. New Region 1143 (S22E16)
emerged on the disk as a D-type bi-polar group and exhibited steady
growth through the period. Region 1139 (S27W74) redeveloped spots
after a 6-day spotless plage interval. Region 1140 (N33W24)
redeveloped spots to the north of the large H spot and was
reclassified as a C-type bi-polar group. Region 1142 (S14W45)
decayed to a uni-polar group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels during the forecast period (08 - 10
January). A chance for isolated C-class activity exists all three
days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with a
minor storm interval observed between 06/2100 - 2400Z. The increase
in activity was due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind velocities, as observed at the ACE satellite,
steadily increased throughout the period from about 450 km/s at
06/2100Z to a maximum of 627 km/s at 07/1545Z. Velocities remained
near 600 km/s through the end of the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward value of
-14nT at 06/2226Z and remained southward between -5 nT to -10 nT for
about 6 hours. For the remainder of the period, Bz fluctuated
between +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three
days of the forecast period (08 - 10 January). Isolated active to
minor storm periods are possible on 08 and 09 January. This activity
is due to continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Jan au 10 Jan
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Jan 086 Prévisionnel 08 Jan-10 Jan 086/086/084 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Jan 084
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Jan 009/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Jan 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Jan au 10 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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| Dernière classe X | 01/06/2024 | X1.03 |
| Dernière classe M | 02/06/2024 | M1.9 |
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| Jours sans taches solaires | |
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| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
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