Affichage des archives de dimanche, 30 décembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 364 publié à 2200Z le 30 Dec 2001
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been moderate. Early in the period,
newly numbered Region 9767 (S23E73) produced an M2/1f event at
29/2256 UTC. This region is the likely source of the X-class flare
and CME activity of 28 December, and has now rotated into view. The
region appears to be of significant size and magnetic complexity,
but is current location near the east limb prevents a full analysis
of it's characteristics. Other activity during the same period
included a long duration M1 x-ray enhancement during 29/1950-2355
UTC, with an associated west limb CME evident in LASCO imagery,
though appearing to lack any significant earth-directed component.
Other regions on the visible disk were mostly quiescent, with a few
minor C-class events observed. An additional new region was also
numbered today, Region 9766 (N05E62).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at predominantly moderate levels, with a fair chance for isolated
major flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to active. Most of the
period was dominated by ongoing effects from yesterday's shock
passage, with an extended period of southward IMF producing active
conditions during 30/0300-0900 UTC. Late in the period, an
additional shock passage was observed at the ACE satellite at
30/1932 UTC, followed by a sudden impulse of 27 nT observed at
Boulder at 30/2010 UTC. This event is presumed to be an early
arrival of effects from the powerful X-class event of 28 December.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit has
fluctuated near the event threshold value of 10 pfu for most of the
day, though now appears to be undergoing some enhancement due to the
recent shock passage. As a result of near-threshold activity, a 10
MeV proton event has been in progress since 30/0245 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
With the arrival of the most
recent shock passage, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to
be unsettled to active, with minor storm conditions possible during
the first day of the forecast period. An enhancement of activity
due to additional shock effects are also possible within the first
two days, due to expected effects from the west limb CME of 29
December. Predominantly unsettled and quiet conditions are expected
thereafter as shock passage effects wane. The 10 MeV proton event
in progress is expected to end within the next 12-24 hours.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 31 Dec au 02 Jan
Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 Dec 247
Prévisionnel 31 Dec-02 Jan 250/250/245
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 Dec 225
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 29 Dec 013/010
Estimé Afr/Ap 30 Dec 018/018
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 020/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 31 Dec au 02 Jan
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 30% | 20% | 15% |
Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 35% | 25% | 15% |
Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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