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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Apr 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Apr 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1305Z from Region 3283 (S23W56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/0059Z. Total
IMF reached 34 nT at 24/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -33 nT at 24/0106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 23/2125Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (27 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Apr 134 Previsto 25 Apr-27 Apr 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 24 Apr 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 032/082 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Apr 043/079 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 019/022-007/008-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Apr a 27 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/17 | M7.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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|---|---|
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