3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Oct 20 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 20     Oct 21     Oct 22
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        3          3          3     
06-09UT        2          4          4     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014

              Oct 20  Oct 21  Oct 22
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance of reaching S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over the next three days (20-22 Oct) due to the potential for major flare activity from large and complex Region 2192.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 19 2014 0503 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014

              Oct 20        Oct 21        Oct 22
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) solar flare radio blackout activity is likely with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) solar flare radio blackout activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct). Region 2192 is expected to be the likely source of any subsequent major flare activity.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M3.91

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 77%
Middle latitude 3%
Low latitude 3%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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Latest alerts

Strong M3.91 solar flare
Major X1.1 solar flare from sunspot region 12192
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Last X-flare:2014/10/19X1.1
Last M-flare:2014/10/18M1.6
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/10/15Kp5 (G1)

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