3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Jul 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2014 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jul 22     Jul 23     Jul 24
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          1          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2014

              Jul 22  Jul 23  Jul 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2014

              Jul 22        Jul 23        Jul 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 59%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2

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