3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Aug 28 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014 is 6 ( (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 28     Aug 29     Aug 30
00-03UT        6 (G2)     4          2     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
06-09UT        4          3          3     
09-12UT        3          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Minor storm (NOAA Scale G1) conditions are expected, with the chance for a major geomagnetic storm (NOAA Scale G2) are forecast for day one (28 Aug) in response to the effects from the pair of CMEs which left the Sun on 22 Aug. CME effects are expected to wane by the end of day one, replaced by the arrival of a positive polarity CH/HSS on day two (29 Aug). Slightly enhanced, but below the G1 minor threshold, conditions are expected for day two, with less than G1 minor conditions forecast for day three (30 Aug) as the CH/HSS impacts subside.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014

              Aug 28  Aug 29  Aug 30
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a minor (NOAA Scale S1) space radiation storm on day one (28 Aug).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014

              Aug 28        Aug 29        Aug 30
R1-R2           40%           30%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

There is a chance for M-class flares (R1 radio blackouts) on days one through three (28-30 Aug) as Region 2146 rotates around the western limb.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 6o
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

Auroral activity

High latitude 71%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 30%
Middle latitude 30% 10%
Predicted Kp max 6

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Latest alerts

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6o) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.
Strong M3.97 solar flare from sunspot region 12146
Moderate M2 solar flare from sunspot region 12146

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/06/11X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/08/25M3.9
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/08/19Kp6 (G2)

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