3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Sep 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 21-Sep 23 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Sep 21     Sep 22     Sep 23
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        3          1          1     
06-09UT        2          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          2     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        3          2          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2014

              Sep 21  Sep 22  Sep 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2014

              Sep 21        Sep 22        Sep 23
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
There is slight chance for (R1-Minor) radio blackouts for the next three days (21-23 Sep).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 69%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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Latest alerts

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5+) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
Moderate M1.57 solar flare from sunspot region 12157
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6o) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/09/10X1.6
Last M-flare:2014/09/18M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/09/19Kp5 (G1)

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