3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Apr 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Apr 25     Apr 26     Apr 27
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          1     
06-09UT        2          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014

              Apr 25  Apr 26  Apr 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014

              Apr 25        Apr 26        Apr 27
R1-R2           25%           25%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C3.89

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 68%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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98%

Latest alerts

Major X1.39 solar flare
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5o) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
Weak CME impact
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has arrived at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 81.51 km/sec to 598.3 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 598.3 km/sec and density 3.8 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 14.9 nT - Bz 10.9 nT

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/03/29X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/04/18M7.3
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/04/20Kp5 (G1)

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