3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Dec 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014 is 6 ( (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Dec 21     Dec 22     Dec 23
00-03UT        2          5 (G1)     3     
03-06UT        2          4          2     
06-09UT        3          3          2     
09-12UT        4          3          2     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
15-18UT        5 (G1)     2          2     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     2          2     
21-00UT        6 (G2)     3          2     

Rationale
A solar transient (CME) arrival will bring minor (G1) to moderate (G2) levels of geomagnetic activity from midday on 21 Dec lingering until early on 22 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014

              Dec 21  Dec 22  Dec 23
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale
There is a chance for an S1 (minor) or greater solar radiation storm from activity associated with Regions 2242 and 2241.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 20 2014 0030 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2014

              Dec 21        Dec 22        Dec 23
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale
R1-R2 (minor-moderate) solar activity is expected from Regions 2242 and 2241, with an ongoing chance for an R3 (strong) or greater event from these large, complex regions.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C4.21

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 50%
Middle latitude 2%
Low latitude 2%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 65%
Middle latitude 30% 20%
Predicted Kp max 6

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