3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 30       May 01       May 02
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         3.67     
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         4.00     
06-09UT       2.00         3.67         3.67     
09-12UT       2.00         3.33         3.33     
12-15UT       1.67         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         2.67     
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         3.67     
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         3.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30  May 01  May 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2024 0111 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30        May 01        May 02
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity will persist through 02 May mainly due to the evolution and recent flare activity exhibited by AR 3654.