3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2016 Feb 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Feb 10     Feb 11     Feb 12
00-03UT        3          2          3     
03-06UT        2          2          4     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          4     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period on day one (10 Feb) in response to waning CME effects. Day two (11 Feb) is expected to be mostly quiet until later in the day when unsettled conditions are expected due to the IMF becoming slightly disturbed and enhanced due to an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected see a few periods of active conditions due to CIR and CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016

              Feb 10  Feb 11  Feb 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016

              Feb 10        Feb 11        Feb 12
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
B9.1

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Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
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Last geomagnetic storm:2016/02/08Kp5 (G1)

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