3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 Aug 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2015 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Aug 01     Aug 02     Aug 03
00-03UT        3          4          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        3          3          3     
18-21UT        4          3          3     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          3     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 01 August due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2015

              Aug 01  Aug 02  Aug 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2015

              Aug 01        Aug 02        Aug 03
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 68%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 55%
Middle latitude 20% 5%
Predicted Kp max 5

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Latest alerts

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5+) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 6-) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2015/07/06M1.7
Last geomagnetic storm:2015/07/23Kp5 (G1)

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