3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Apr 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Apr 25     Apr 26     Apr 27
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          1     
06-09UT        2          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014

              Apr 25  Apr 26  Apr 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2014

              Apr 25        Apr 26        Apr 27
R1-R2           25%           25%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

Auroral activity

High latitude 68%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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