3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 Jan 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jan 27     Jan 28     Jan 29
00-03UT        4          2          3     
03-06UT        3          2          3     
06-09UT        3          2          3     
09-12UT        3          2          3     
12-15UT        3          2          3     
15-18UT        3          2          3     
18-21UT        3          2          3     
21-00UT        4          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015

              Jan 27  Jan 28  Jan 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 26 2015 1653 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015

              Jan 27        Jan 28        Jan 29
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale
A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists due to flare potential mainly from Region 2268 (S11E22).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C1.24

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 76%
Middle latitude 3%
Low latitude 3%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 40%
Middle latitude 15% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4

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