3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Oct 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        1          3          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          2          2     
21-00UT        4          2          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater   35%     40%     45%

Rationale
A chance for a solar radiation storm at or above the S1 (Minor) levels exists over the next three days (24-26 Oct) as Region 2192 rotates into a more threatening position on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 24 2014 0748 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2014

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   45%           45%           45%

Rationale
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a chance for X-class (R3 or greater) radio blackouts for the next three days (24-26 Oct).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.13

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 76%
Middle latitude 3%
Low latitude 3%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 45%
Middle latitude 15% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4

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Last X-flare:2014/10/22X1.6
Last M-flare:2014/10/23M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/10/20Kp5 (G1)

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