3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 May 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2015 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            May 26     May 27     May 28
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          1          2     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          2     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        2          2          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2015

              May 26  May 27  May 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2015

              May 26        May 27        May 28
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 52%
Middle latitude 4%
Low latitude 4%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2

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Latest alerts

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 6-) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2015/05/06M1.9
Last geomagnetic storm:2015/05/19Kp6 (G2)

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