3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 Jul 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA scale G2).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jul 06     Jul 07     Jul 08
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        4          2          1     
06-09UT        3          2          1     
09-12UT        3          1          1     
12-15UT        3          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          1          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active periods (Below G1-Minor) are expected through midday on day one (06 Jul) as coronal hole high speed stream activity subsides.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015

              Jul 06  Jul 07  Jul 08
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015

              Jul 06        Jul 07        Jul 08
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists throughout the forecast period (06-08 Jul).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C2.9

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 68%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 50%
Middle latitude 15% 5%
Predicted Kp max 4

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Latest alerts

Moderate M1.01 solar flare
A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch is currently in effect. There is a slight chance for middle latitude auroral activity.
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 7-) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2015/07/03M1.5
Last geomagnetic storm:2015/07/05Kp6 (G2)

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