3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Apr 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Apr 17     Apr 18     Apr 19
00-03UT        3          3          2     
03-06UT        3          2          1     
06-09UT        2          2          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014

              Apr 17  Apr 18  Apr 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 16 2014 1959 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014

              Apr 17        Apr 18        Apr 19
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale
Solar activity is likely to be at (R1-Minor) levels for the next three days (17 - 19 Apr) due to solar region complexity and growth.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C3.21

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 57%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 25%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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