3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Sep 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 01-Sep 03 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Sep 01     Sep 02     Sep 03
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        3          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          3     
09-12UT        3          2          2     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          1     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 01-Sep 03 2014

              Sep 01  Sep 02  Sep 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 01-Sep 03 2014

              Sep 01        Sep 02        Sep 03
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 75%
Middle latitude 3%
Low latitude 3%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4

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Latest alerts

A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch is currently in effect. There is a slight chance for middle latitude auroral activity.
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6o) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.
Strong M3.97 solar flare from sunspot region 12146

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/06/11X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/08/25M3.9
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/08/29Kp5 (G1)

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