3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Nov 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Nov 22     Nov 23     Nov 24
00-03UT        3          4          4     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          3          3     
21-00UT        4          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014

              Nov 22  Nov 23  Nov 24
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014

              Nov 22        Nov 23        Nov 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity is likely with a chance for an (R3/Strong or greater) radio blackout for the forecast period (22-24 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for significant flare production.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C1.1

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 60%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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