3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 May 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2015 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            May 04     May 05     May 06
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        1          2          3     
06-09UT        1          2          3     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          2          4     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        2          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are expected on day three (06 May) due to a combination of coronal hole high speed stream activity coupled with the arrival of the 02 May CME late in the period.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2015

              May 04  May 05  May 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2015

              May 04        May 05        May 06
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C2.03

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 20%
Middle latitude 3%
Low latitude 3%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2

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