3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 Mar 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 05-Mar 07 2015 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Mar 05     Mar 06     Mar 07
00-03UT        1          3          3     
03-06UT        1          2          2     
06-09UT        1          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2015

              Mar 05  Mar 06  Mar 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2015

              Mar 05        Mar 06        Mar 07
R1-R2           10%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.22

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 67%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 25%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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