3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Nov 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 24-Nov 26 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Nov 24     Nov 25     Nov 26
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2014

              Nov 24  Nov 25  Nov 26
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2014

              Nov 24        Nov 25        Nov 26
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an (R3/Strong or greater) radio blackout during the period (24-26 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for significant flare production.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C2.59

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 37%
Middle latitude 4%
Low latitude 4%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2

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