3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Jul 28 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 28-Jul 30 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jul 28     Jul 29     Jul 30
00-03UT        2          3          2     
03-06UT        2          2          1     
06-09UT        2          2          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        3          2          1     
15-18UT        3          2          1     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 28-Jul 30 2014

              Jul 28  Jul 29  Jul 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 28-Jul 30 2014

              Jul 28        Jul 29        Jul 30
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts from regions in the southeast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 67%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 20%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Moderate M1.55 solar flare
Moderate M1.25 solar flare from sunspot region 12113
Strong M6.52 solar flare from sunspot region 12113

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/06/11X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/07/10M1.5
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/06/18Kp5 (G1)

This day in history*

Solar flares
12012M6.1
22005M4.8
32002M2.3
41999M2.3
52002M2.2
ApG
1200032G1
2200625G2
3200523G1
4200321G1
5199417
*since 1994