3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2014 Oct 31 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 31     Nov 01     Nov 02
00-03UT        1          3          3     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014

              Oct 31  Nov 01  Nov 02
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, although there is a slight chance for an (S1 minor) event from Region 2192 early in the period.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014

              Oct 31        Nov 01        Nov 02
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale
There is a chance for an (R1-R2, minor-moderate radio blackout) throughout the period.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C1.49

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 76%
Middle latitude 2%
Low latitude 2%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 35%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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