3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2015 Oct 07 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 07-Oct 09 2015 is 6 (NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Oct 07     Oct 08     Oct 09
00-03UT        4          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        2          5 (G1)     3     
09-12UT        2          4          3     
12-15UT        2          4          2     
15-18UT        2          4          2     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          2     
21-00UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     2     

G1 - G2 (Minor - Moderate) conditions are anticipated on day one and two (07-08 Oct) with the onset of a recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected to continue into day three (09 Oct) as the influence of the high speed stream persists.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2015

              Oct 07  Oct 08  Oct 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2015

              Oct 07        Oct 08        Oct 09
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 6-
The density of the solar wind is moderate (30.5 p/cm3)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.1nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.7nT).

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 75%
Middle latitude 35% 15%
Predicted Kp max 6
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
B2.6 B1.4 B5.1

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