OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Issue! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

POES auroral oval

These plots shows you the current extent of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere (left) and the southern hemisphere (right), extrapolated from the measurements taken during the most recent pass of the NOAA POES satellite.
The red arrow points to the direction of the sun (daylight side).

POES auroral oval POES auroral oval

There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
In the past two hours there was a small solar flare with a class of:
C2.23

Auroral activity

Live
High latitude (69% chance)
Middle latitude (0% chance)
Low latitude (0% chance)
Today
Minor
Severe
High latitude
25%
30%
Middle latitude
5%
1%

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Raised: 29%

Latest news

Moderately strong M1.77 solar flare
Weak CME impact
Currently we see the effects of the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 79.26 km/sec to 455.5 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 455.5 km/sec and density 0.4 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 13.4 nT - Bz 3.2 nT
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6.00) - Observers at high latitudes may see some nice periods of visual aurora. The chances for the Middle latitude is still relatively low.

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