OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Caution! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

What are the odds that I can see the aurora from my location?

North America
Canada Canada
Calgary, AB 0%
Edmonton, AB 3%
Gillam, MB 21%
Halifax, NS 0%
Iqaluit, NU 6%
Montreal, QC 0%
Ottawa, ON 0%
Quebec City, QC 0%
Saskatoon, SK 0%
St. John's, NL 0%
Thunder Bay, ON 0%
Toronto, ON 0%
Vancouver, BC 0%
Whitehorse, YT 17%
Winnipeg, MB 0%
Yellowknife, NT 19%
Cuba Cuba
Havana 0%
Greenland Greenland
Nuuk 9%
Mexico Mexico
Mexico City 0%
Monterrey 0%
United States United States
Albuquerque, NM 0%
Anchorage, AK 5%
Atlanta, GA 0%
Augusta, ME 0%
Barrow, AK 10%
Billings, MT 0%
Biose, ID 0%
Bismarck, ND 0%
Boston, MA 0%
Casper, WY 0%
Chicago, IL 0%
Columbus, OH 0%
Dallas, TX 0%
Denver, CO 0%
Fairbanks, AK 15%
Great Falls, MT 0%
Indianapolis, IN 0%
Jackson, MS 0%
Juneau, AK 8%
Las Vegas, NV 0%
Lincoln, NE 0%
Little Rock, AR 0%
Los Angeles, CA 0%
Miami, FL 0%
Minneapolis, MN 0%
Montpelier, VT 0%
Nashville, TN 0%
New York City, NY 0%
Portland, OR 0%
Richmond, VA 0%
Salt Lake City, UT 0%
San Francisco, CA 0%
Seattle, WA 0%
St. Louis, MO 0%
Washington, D.C. 0%
Europe and Asia
Austria Austria
Vienna 0%
Belarus Belarus
Minsk 0%
Belgium Belgium
Brussels 0%
China China
Beijing 0%
Czech Republic Czech Republic
Brno 0%
Prague 0%
Denmark Denmark
Aalborg 0%
Aarhus 0%
Copenhagen 0%
Estonia Estonia
Tallinn 0%
Faroe Islands Faroe Islands
Tórshavn 0%
Finland Finland
Helsinki 0%
Oulu 0%
Rovaniemi 0%
Tampere 0%
Turku 0%
France France
Lyon 0%
Marseille 0%
Nantes 0%
Nice 0%
Paris 0%
Toulouse 0%
Germany Germany
Berlin 0%
Cologne 0%
Frankfurt 0%
Hamburg 0%
Munich 0%
Greece Greece
Athens 0%
Hungary Hungary
Budapest 0%
Iceland Iceland
Reykjavik 9%
Ireland Ireland
Dublin 0%
Italy Italy
Milan 0%
Naples 0%
Rome 0%
Turin 0%
Japan Japan
Tokyo 0%
Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
Astana 0%
Latvia Latvia
Riga 0%
Lithuania Lithuania
Vilnius 0%
Mongolia Mongolia
Ulan Bator 0%
Netherlands Netherlands
Amsterdam 0%
Norway Norway
Bergen 0%
Kirkenes 0%
Oslo 0%
Tromsø 2%
Trondheim 0%
Poland Poland
Gdańsk 0%
Krakow 0%
Warsaw 0%
Portugal Portugal
Lisbon 0%
Porto 0%
Romania Romania
Bucharest 0%
Russia Russia
Arkhangelsk 0%
Irkutsk 0%
Kazan 0%
Moscow 0%
Murmansk 0%
Novosibirsk 0%
Perm 0%
Saint Petersburg 0%
Vladivostok 0%
Yekaterinburg 0%
Slovenia Slovenia
Ljubljana 0%
Slovakia Slovakia
Bratislava 0%
South Korea South Korea
Seoul 0%
Spain Spain
Barcelona 0%
Madrid 0%
Sweden Sweden
Gothenburg 0%
Kiruna 1%
Luleå 0%
Malmö 0%
Stockholm 0%
Sundsvall 0%
Umeå 0%
Switzerland Switzerland
Bern 0%
United Kingdom United Kingdom
Belfast 0%
Birmingham 0%
Edinburgh 0%
London 0%
Manchester 0%
Ukraine Ukraine
Dnipropetrovsk 0%
Donetsk 0%
Kharkiv 0%
Kiev 0%
Southern Hemisphere
Argentina Argentina
Buenos Aires 0%
Comodoro Rivadavia 0%
Ushuaia 0%
Australia Australia
Adelaide 0%
Alice Springs 0%
Brisbane 0%
Devonport 0%
Hobart 0%
Melbourne 0%
Perth 0%
Sydney 0%
Chile Chile
Concepcion 0%
Punta Arenas 0%
New Zealand New Zealand
Auckland 0%
Christchurch 0%
Dunedin 0%
Invercargill 0%
Wellington 0%
South Africa South Africa
Capetown 0%
Durban 0%
Uruguay Uruguay
Montevideo 0%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-6.8nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

Auroral activity

High latitude 75%
Middle latitude 2%
Low latitude 2%
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 60%
Middle latitude 25% 5%
Predicted Kp max 5

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Latest alerts

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 7-) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.
Moderate M2.11 solar flare from sunspot region 12403
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5+) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2015/08/28M2.1
Last geomagnetic storm:2015/08/28Kp6 (G2)

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*since 1994