OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Caution! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

What are the odds that I can see the aurora from my location?

North America
Canada Canada
Calgary, AB 0%
Edmonton, AB 0%
Gillam, MB 0%
Halifax, NS 0%
Iqaluit, NU 6%
Montreal, QC 0%
Ottawa, ON 0%
Quebec City, QC 0%
Saskatoon, SK 0%
St. John's, NL 0%
Thunder Bay, ON 0%
Toronto, ON 0%
Vancouver, BC 0%
Whitehorse, YT 0%
Winnipeg, MB 0%
Yellowknife, NT 9%
Cuba Cuba
Havana 0%
Greenland Greenland
Nuuk 8%
Mexico Mexico
Mexico City 0%
Monterrey 0%
United States United States
Albuquerque, NM 0%
Anchorage, AK 0%
Atlanta, GA 0%
Augusta, ME 0%
Barrow, AK 17%
Billings, MT 0%
Biose, ID 0%
Bismarck, ND 0%
Boston, MA 0%
Casper, WY 0%
Chicago, IL 0%
Columbus, OH 0%
Dallas, TX 0%
Denver, CO 0%
Fairbanks, AK 5%
Great Falls, MT 0%
Indianapolis, IN 0%
Jackson, MS 0%
Juneau, AK 0%
Las Vegas, NV 0%
Lincoln, NE 0%
Little Rock, AR 0%
Los Angeles, CA 0%
Miami, FL 0%
Minneapolis, MN 0%
Montpelier, VT 0%
Nashville, TN 0%
New York City, NY 0%
Portland, OR 0%
Richmond, VA 0%
Salt Lake City, UT 0%
San Francisco, CA 0%
Seattle, WA 0%
St. Louis, MO 0%
Washington, D.C. 0%
Europe and Asia
Austria Austria
Vienna 0%
Belarus Belarus
Minsk 0%
Belgium Belgium
Brussels 0%
China China
Beijing 0%
Czech Republic Czech Republic
Brno 0%
Prague 0%
Denmark Denmark
Aalborg 0%
Aarhus 0%
Copenhagen 0%
Estonia Estonia
Tallinn 0%
Faroe Islands Faroe Islands
Tórshavn 2%
Finland Finland
Helsinki 0%
Oulu 3%
Rovaniemi 5%
Tampere 0%
Turku 0%
France France
Lyon 0%
Marseille 0%
Nantes 0%
Nice 0%
Paris 0%
Toulouse 0%
Germany Germany
Berlin 0%
Cologne 0%
Frankfurt 0%
Hamburg 0%
Munich 0%
Greece Greece
Athens 0%
Hungary Hungary
Budapest 0%
Iceland Iceland
Reykjavik 8%
Ireland Ireland
Dublin 0%
Italy Italy
Milan 0%
Naples 0%
Rome 0%
Turin 0%
Japan Japan
Tokyo 0%
Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
Astana 0%
Latvia Latvia
Riga 0%
Lithuania Lithuania
Vilnius 0%
Mongolia Mongolia
Ulan Bator 0%
Netherlands Netherlands
Amsterdam 0%
Norway Norway
Bergen 0%
Kirkenes 12%
Oslo 0%
Tromsø 13%
Trondheim 2%
Poland Poland
Gdańsk 0%
Krakow 0%
Warsaw 0%
Portugal Portugal
Lisbon 0%
Porto 0%
Romania Romania
Bucharest 0%
Russia Russia
Arkhangelsk 0%
Irkutsk 0%
Kazan 0%
Moscow 0%
Murmansk 10%
Novosibirsk 0%
Perm 0%
Saint Petersburg 0%
Vladivostok 0%
Yekaterinburg 0%
Slovenia Slovenia
Ljubljana 0%
Slovakia Slovakia
Bratislava 0%
South Korea South Korea
Seoul 0%
Spain Spain
Barcelona 0%
Madrid 0%
Sweden Sweden
Gothenburg 0%
Kiruna 10%
Luleå 5%
Malmö 0%
Stockholm 0%
Sundsvall 0%
Umeå 2%
Switzerland Switzerland
Bern 0%
United Kingdom United Kingdom
Belfast 0%
Birmingham 0%
Edinburgh 0%
London 0%
Manchester 0%
Ukraine Ukraine
Dnipropetrovsk 0%
Donetsk 0%
Kharkiv 0%
Kiev 0%
Southern Hemisphere
Argentina Argentina
Buenos Aires 0%
Comodoro Rivadavia 0%
Ushuaia 0%
Australia Australia
Adelaide 0%
Alice Springs 0%
Brisbane 0%
Devonport 0%
Hobart 0%
Melbourne 0%
Perth 0%
Sydney 0%
Chile Chile
Concepcion 0%
Punta Arenas 0%
New Zealand New Zealand
Auckland 0%
Christchurch 0%
Dunedin 0%
Invercargill 0%
Wellington 0%
South Africa South Africa
Capetown 0%
Durban 0%
Uruguay Uruguay
Montevideo 0%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C1.42

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 66%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 50%
Middle latitude 15% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5

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25%

Latest alerts

Moderate M2.42 solar flare
Moderate M1.63 solar flare from sunspot region 12268
Moderate M1.73 solar flare from sunspot region 12268

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/12/20X1.8
Last M-flare:2015/01/30M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm:2015/01/07Kp7 (G3)

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