OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Caution! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

POES auroral oval

These plots shows you the current extent of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere (left) and the southern hemisphere (right), extrapolated from the measurements taken during the most recent pass of the NOAA POES satellite.
The red arrow points to the direction of the sun (daylight side).

POES auroral oval POES auroral oval

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

Auroral activity

High latitude 0%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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Latest alerts

A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch is currently in effect. There is a slight chance for middle latitude auroral activity.
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6o) - High latitude sky watchers have a high chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes have a good chance to see visible aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located. There is also a slight chance for weak aurora on the horizon at the lower middle latitudes but the chances are still low.
Strong M3.97 solar flare from sunspot region 12146

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/06/11X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/08/25M3.9
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/08/29Kp5 (G1)

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