OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Caution! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

POES auroral oval

These plots shows you the current extent of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere (left) and the southern hemisphere (right), extrapolated from the measurements taken during the most recent pass of the NOAA POES satellite.
The red arrow points to the direction of the sun (daylight side).

POES auroral oval POES auroral oval

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C3.12

Auroral activity

Live
chance
High latitude 67%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Today
Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3

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98%

Latest alerts

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5o) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.
Weak CME impact
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has arrived at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 81.51 km/sec to 598.3 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 598.3 km/sec and density 3.8 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 14.9 nT - Bz 10.9 nT
Minor S1 class Space Radiation Storm - This happens around 50 times in a solar cycle

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/03/29X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/04/18M7.3
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/04/20Kp5 (G1)

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003M3.3
22001M3.1
32001M2.3
42001M2.1
52001M1.8
ApG
1201241G2
2199835G1
3200327G1
4199526G1
5201324G1
*since 1994