April 20, 2014 - 11:30 UTC
The M7 CME has arrived at Earth. Discussion on the SWL forums. More info

OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval and is based on the solar wind conditions and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the bottom of the map. The forecast is based on the current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at the L1 Lagrange point to Earth. The red line indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora, assuming good viewing conditions.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Caution! This model is driven by solar wind data from the ACE satellite. When the proton level gets high enough, the ACE solar wind sensors become contaminated and the Ovation model produces an inacurate forecast.

POES auroral oval

These plots shows you the current extent of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere (left) and the southern hemisphere (right), extrapolated from the measurements taken during the most recent pass of the NOAA POES satellite.
The red arrow points to the direction of the sun (daylight side).

POES auroral oval POES auroral oval

Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions outlook
The solar wind speed is currently high (666.3 km/sec.)

Auroral activity

High latitude 69%
Middle latitude 0%
Low latitude 0%
Minor Severe
High latitude 15% 75%
Middle latitude 40% 20%
Predicted Kp max 6

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Latest alerts

Weak CME impact
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has arrived at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 81.51 km/sec to 598.3 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 598.3 km/sec and density 3.8 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 14.9 nT - Bz 10.9 nT
Minor S1 class Space Radiation Storm - This happens around 50 times in a solar cycle
Strong M7.31 solar flare

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2014/03/29X1.0
Last M-flare:2014/04/18M7.3
Last geomagnetic storm:2014/04/12Kp5 (G1)

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