查看星期二, 6 3月 2012歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2012 Mar 06 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 066 在 06 Mar 2012 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 05-2100Z到 06-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective. Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple magnetically and was relatively quiet.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely. There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 05-2100Z 至 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at 06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March (associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March. Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the third day (09 March).
III. 事件機率 07 Mar 至 09 Mar
M級80%80%80%
X級30%30%30%
質子30%30%30%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       06 Mar 138
  預測的   07 Mar-09 Mar  140/140/135
  90天平均值        06 Mar 125
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 05 Mar  011/009
  估算值     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  009/009
  預測的    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/020-010/015-006/007
VI. 地磁活動機率 07 Mar 至 09 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見30%20%05%
小風暴10%10%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見15%15%15%
小風暴35%15%10%
特大強風暴40%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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