查看星期一, 5 3月 2012歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 065 在 05 Mar 2012 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 04-2100Z到 05-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about 1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 04-2100Z 至 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z. Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (08 Mar).
III. 事件機率 06 Mar 至 08 Mar
M級75%75%75%
X級30%30%30%
質子30%30%30%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       05 Mar 132
  預測的   06 Mar-08 Mar  135/140/140
  90天平均值        05 Mar 125
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/014
  估算值     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 06 Mar 至 08 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見20%30%20%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見15%15%15%
小風暴25%35%15%
特大強風暴30%40%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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