查看星期一, 24 10月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Oct 24 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 297 在 24 Oct 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 23-2100Z到 24-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Region 1330 (N08E45) produced a C1 x-ray event at 23/2237Z. The region continued to evolve as it rotated more fully on the disk. It grew in both area coverage and spot count and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The other significant region of interest, Region 1324 (N12W13), was quiet and stable during the period. New Region 1332 (N32E78) rotated onto the disk as an H-type spot.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity. Regions 1324 (N12W13) and 1330 (N08E45) are the most likely for moderate level activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 23-2100Z 至 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet with a single active period observed between 24/1800 - 2100Z. The ACE spacecraft observed an interplanetary shock passage at 24/1748Z with a subsequent sudden impulse of 13 nT observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 24/1832Z. Observations at ACE revealed increases in temperature, density and wind speed while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) decreased southward to -20 nT for a brief period. IMF Bt reached 20 nT. Wind velocities increased from a steady 350 km/s to 525 km/s and remained so through the end of the period. This mostly likely was the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/1500Z ended at 23/1605Z. A peak flux of 13 pfu was reached at 23/1535Z. Earlier in the period, another, weaker shock passage was observed in the ACE solar wind data at 23/2320Z. This was most likely the result of a glancing blow from a CME associated with an M1.6 x-ray event observed of the NW limb at 20/0325Z .
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on day one (25 October), due to lingering effects of the 24 October CME passage. By day two (26 October), the field is expected to mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods returning to mostly quiet on day three (27 October).
III. 事件機率 25 Oct 至 27 Oct
M級20%20%20%
X級01%01%01%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟Green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       24 Oct 145
  預測的   25 Oct-27 Oct  145/140/140
  90天平均值        24 Oct 123
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  009/010
  預測的    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  010/012-007/008-005/007
VI. 地磁活動機率 25 Oct 至 27 Oct
A. 中緯度
可見40%30%05%
小風暴05%05%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見50%40%20%
小風暴15%10%05%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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