查看星期五, 2 9月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Sep 02 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 245 在 02 Sep 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 01-2100Z到 02-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at low levels due a to C1/Sf flare at 02/1516Z from Region 1281 (S20E01). During the period, the region decayed slightly in area and spot count and remained a D-type, bi-polar spot group. Region 1283 (N13E37) produced an impulsive B8/Sf flare at 02/0852Z. The region showed penumbral development in the trailer spots and was classified as a D-type, bi-polar spot group. Region 1282 (N25W40) indicated an increase in area and longitudinal extent and was classified as an E-type, bi-polar spot group. A CME was observed lifting off the SE limb, first seen in SOHO LASCO/C2 imagery at 02/0748Z. A plane-of-sky speed was estimated at 375 km/s. The source of this CME appears to have originated from a filament channel centered near S28E42. Material motion was first observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 02/0554Z. At this time, there does not appear to be an Earthward-directed component.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (03 - 05 September) with a slight chance for M-class activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 01-2100Z 至 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, were steady below 300 km/s through the period. A phi angle change from negative (toward) to positive (away) was observed at approximately 02/0900Z. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominately negative through the period at about -4 nT.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for active periods, on days one and two (03 - 04 September). This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to rotate into a geoeffective position early on 03 September. By day three (05 September), field activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. 事件機率 03 Sep 至 05 Sep
M級10%10%10%
X級01%01%01%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟Green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       02 Sep 115
  預測的   03 Sep-05 Sep  115/115/110
  90天平均值        02 Sep 097
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 01 Sep  001/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  003/005
  預測的    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. 地磁活動機率 03 Sep 至 05 Sep
A. 中緯度
可見20%20%15%
小風暴05%05%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見25%25%20%
小風暴10%10%05%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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