查看星期六, 26 3月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Mar 26 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 085 在 26 Mar 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 25-2100Z到 26-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate due to an impulsive M1 X-ray event at 25/2322Z from Region 1176 (S16E16). Associated with this event were Type II (673 km/s), Type IV and 10.7 cm (170 sfu) radio signatures. Region 1176 remained mostly unchanged through the period, though it increased in longitudinal extent, and is classified as an F-type group. Region 1178 (S15E43) developed penumbra in its trailer spots to become a D-type group. At about 26/0500Z, GOES-15 SXI BE12A imagery observed a large surge from Region 1180 (N25E53) that appeared to continue for about six hours. X-ray data was mostly unavailable during this event due to GOES-13 and GOES-15 eclipse phase. Associated with this event was a fast-moving (approximately 850 km/s) partial-halo, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 26/0630Z and STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery at 26/0709Z. Though this CME does not appear to have an Earth-directed component, further analysis is required.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (27 - 29 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (27 March) becoming likely on days two and three (28 - 29 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Region 1176 and the return of old Region 1166 (N10, L=110) on 27 March. On its last transit across the disk, old Region 1166 produced four M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 25-2100Z 至 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual decrease in wind velocities from a high of 460 km/s at 26/0243Z to a low of 360 km/s at 26/1841Z. IMF Bz was predominately north through the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (27 March). By day two (28 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are possible due to effects from the 24 March CME. Quiet levels are expected to return on day three (29 March).
III. 事件機率 27 Mar 至 29 Mar
M級50%60%70%
X級05%05%10%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       26 Mar 115
  預測的   27 Mar-29 Mar  120/125/125
  90天平均值        26 Mar 096
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 25 Mar  002/003
  估算值     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  002/003
  預測的    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. 地磁活動機率 27 Mar 至 29 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見10%20%10%
小風暴01%05%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見15%25%15%
小風暴01%10%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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