查看星期三, 23 3月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Mar 23 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 082 在 23 Mar 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 22-2100Z到 23-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 1176 (S15E58) produced an isolated impulsive M1 flare at 23/0217Z associated with weak radio emission. It also produced occasional B- and C-class flares. Region 1176 rotated more fully into view and was classified as an Eko-type group with a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1175 (N11W76) was quiet and stable as it approached the west limb. New Region 1177 (N21E51) was numbered as a magnetically simple, single-spot Axx-type.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels during the period (24 - 26 March) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 22-2100Z 至 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a brief interval of active levels detected at Boulder at around 23/0700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was the result of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 358 to 547 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt increased during the period with a maximum of 11 nT observed at 23/0714Z. IMF Bz was variable during the period and ranged from -6 to +8 nT.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (24 - 25 Mar) with a chance for brief active levels as coronal hole effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (26 March) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. 事件機率 24 Mar 至 26 Mar
M級30%30%30%
X級05%05%05%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       23 Mar 105
  預測的   24 Mar-26 Mar  105/105/110
  90天平均值        23 Mar 095
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 22 Mar  005/006
  估算值     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. 地磁活動機率 24 Mar 至 26 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見15%15%10%
小風暴05%05%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見20%20%15%
小風暴10%10%01%
特大強風暴01%01%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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