查看星期四, 3 3月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Mar 03 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 062 在 03 Mar 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 02-2100Z到 03-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25W06) produced a C5/1N flare at 03/1420Z and was classified as an Ekc type group with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1167 (N14E31) was numbered today and classified as a Bxo type group with Beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were quiescent. An earth-directed CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/0509Z and in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 03/0636Z.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (04-06 March) with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 02-2100Z 至 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm conditons. The storms were confined to high latitudes while middle latitudes experienced quiet to active levels. The disturbed conditions were the result of the continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective earlier in the week. Solar wind values at the ACE spacecraft ranged between 560 to 660 km/s during the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly southward from 03/05Z to 03/17Z, reaching -7 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to slowly return to quiet conditions during the forecast period (04-06 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days 1 and 2 (04-05 March) with a slight chance for major storm levels at high latitudes. Day 3 (06 March) will see a return to predominantly quiet conditions as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes.
III. 事件機率 04 Mar 至 06 Mar
M級35%35%35%
X級05%05%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟Green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       03 Mar 121
  預測的   04 Mar-06 Mar  120/120/120
  90天平均值        03 Mar 088
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/017
  估算值     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  015/017
  預測的    Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. 地磁活動機率 04 Mar 至 06 Mar
A. 中緯度
可見25%20%10%
小風暴10%05%05%
特大強風暴01%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見30%25%25%
小風暴15%10%10%
特大強風暴10%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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