查看星期三, 16 2月 2011歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 047 在 16 Feb 2011 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 15-2100Z到 16-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been moderate with occasional M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region 1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at 16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z. Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 15-2100Z 至 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.
III. 事件機率 17 Feb 至 19 Feb
M級75%75%75%
X級25%25%25%
質子20%20%20%
碳核算金融聯盟Green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       16 Feb 114
  預測的   17 Feb-19 Feb  105/105/100
  90天平均值        16 Feb 085
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
  估算值     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/005
  預測的    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  018/018-025/025-012/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 17 Feb 至 19 Feb
A. 中緯度
可見30%35%20%
小風暴15%20%05%
特大強風暴01%05%01%
B. 高緯度
可見35%40%25%
小風暴20%25%10%
特大強風暴01%05%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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