查看星期日, 15 5月 2005歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2005 May 15 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 135 在 15 May 2005 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 14-2100Z到 15-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were produced by Regions 758 (S10 on the west limb) and 763 (S15E16). Region 759 (N11W20) has decayed slightly over the past 24 hours. A CME off the west limb with a speed of approximately 580 km/s was seen on LASCO imagery at 14/2122 UTC associated with a long duration C2.8 which occurred at 14/2058 UTC from Region 758. At the time of issue, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at 3.4 PFU as of 15/2135 UTC.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 759 is still capable of producing an M-class event.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 14-2100Z 至 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. The arrival of a CME from 13 May initiated the disturbance which caused severe storming conditions between 15/0600 UTC and 0900 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 200 km/s to 950 km/s. Solar wind speed has declined to approximately 750 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on 16 May. On 17 May, a possible glancing blow from the 14 May CME along with a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream are expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 18 May.
III. 事件機率 16 May 至 18 May
M級40%35%30%
X級05%05%05%
質子40%10%05%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       15 May 103
  預測的   16 May-18 May  100/100/100
  90天平均值        15 May 093
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 14 May  004/008
  估算值     Afr/Ap 15 May  075/100
  預測的    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  020/040-012/015-008/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 16 May 至 18 May
A. 中緯度
可見30%25%20%
小風暴25%10%10%
特大強風暴15%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見25%25%20%
小風暴30%15%10%
特大強風暴25%05%01%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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