查看星期三, 10 11月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Nov 10 2220 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 315 在 10 Nov 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 09-2100Z到 10-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity continued at high levels this period. The very active Region 696 (N08W62) produced an X2/3b Tenflare with protons at 10/0213Z. Strong Type II and IV radio sweeps and moderate centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this flare. LASCO imagery showed a very fast asymetrical full halo CME with a plane-of-sky speed estimated at 2000 km/s. Region 696 continues to gradually decrease in area, but maintains a significant delta configuration. The rest of the visible disk was quiet and stable.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696, though in decay, maintains potential for major flare activity. This region will rotate around the west limb on 13 November and as a result, solar activity levels are expected to significantly decline.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 09-2100Z 至 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. Yesterday's strong shock at 09/1852Z was followed by a short period of strong southward Bz to near 40 nT, before rotating northward for approximately five hours. At 10/0100Z, the solar wind exceeded 800 km/s and Bz rotated southward again, ranging from -15 to -25 nT for over nine hours. The geomagnetic field response was severe at all latitudes. The period ended at minor storm levels with solar wind speed declining to near 600 km/s. A new influx of high energy protons followed the X2 flare at 10/0213Z. A greater than 10 MeV peak flux of 424 pfu was observed at 10/1655Z. A greater than 100 Mev proton event also occurred in association with the X2 flare. It began on 10/0320Z, peaked at 2.1 pfu at 10/0340Z, and ended at 10/1250Z. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to severe storm levels on 11 and 12 November. The two halo CMEs observed on 09 and 10 November are expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 11 November. Both of these fast CMEs had a strong westward component; however, their combined effects may produce major or even severe storm periods. On 12 November, field conditions are expected to return to mostly unsettled to minor storm levels, with occasional major storm periods at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 13 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to end by 12 November.
III. 事件機率 11 Nov 至 13 Nov
M級70%65%60%
X級20%15%10%
質子99%25%15%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       10 Nov 105
  預測的   11 Nov-13 Nov  100/095/090
  90天平均值        10 Nov 109
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 09 Nov  047/120
  估算值     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  100/200
  預測的    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  075/125-030/050-020/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 11 Nov 至 13 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見25%40%30%
小風暴50%25%20%
特大強風暴25%15%10%
B. 高緯度
可見20%40%40%
小風暴40%30%20%
特大強風暴40%20%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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