查看星期二, 9 11月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Nov 09 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 314 在 09 Nov 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 08-2100Z到 09-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 696 (N08W50) produced several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south of the active region at the same time as the flare. The M8 flare was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s. Region 696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period. Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today. The 10 cm flux value observed today was flare enhanced.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 08-2100Z 至 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The period began with active to major storm levels with solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s. A 34 nT sudden impulse was observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s. Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period. The GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following the second sudden impulse. Solar wind speed increased from 650 to 800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 12 November.
III. 事件機率 10 Nov 至 12 Nov
M級75%70%65%
X級20%20%15%
質子99%25%15%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       09 Nov 141
  預測的   10 Nov-12 Nov  120/115/110
  90天平均值        09 Nov 110
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 08 Nov  116/189
  估算值     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  085/100
  預測的    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  030/040-045/050-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 10 Nov 至 12 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見35%40%30%
小風暴25%35%20%
特大強風暴20%25%10%
B. 高緯度
可見45%30%45%
小風暴30%40%25%
特大強風暴20%30%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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