查看星期一, 26 7月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jul 26 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 208 在 26 Jul 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 25-2100Z到 26-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 652 (N08W47) produced two M-class flares - an M1/Sf at 26/0552Z, and an M1/2n at 26/1730Z. This region continues in a slow decay phase, but still exceeds 1000 millionths of white light area coverage in a moderately complex beta-gamma-delta configuration. Growth was observed in newly numbered Region 654 (N07E38), but no activity of note has occurred. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 652 will likely produce further M-class activity and still maintains potential for a major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 25-2100Z 至 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. The severe geomagnetic storm that occurred yesterday, continued into the early hours of this period. Major to severe geomagnetic storm periods were observed through 26/0300Z. Solar wind speed remained elevated from 500 to over 700 km/s, but IMF Bz was generally around zero from 0300Z through the end of the period. Consequently, the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 25/1855Z, is still in progress. The peak so far was 271 pfu at 26/1905Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery following yesterday's long duration M1 flare at 25/1514Z. This CME will likely impact the geomagnetic field early on 27 July. Expect minor to major storm periods at all latitudes and severe storm levels at high latitudes. The storm is expected to end by 28 July. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected on 28 July. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 29 July with isolated high latitude active periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now will likely end on 28 July.
III. 事件機率 27 Jul 至 29 Jul
M級65%65%50%
X級15%10%10%
質子99%25%10%
碳核算金融聯盟red
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       26 Jul 128
  預測的   27 Jul-29 Jul  125/120/115
  90天平均值        26 Jul 105
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 25 Jul  064/122
  估算值     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  020/040
  預測的    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  060/055-025/030-015/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 27 Jul 至 29 Jul
A. 中緯度
可見20%40%20%
小風暴40%20%10%
特大強風暴40%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見20%50%30%
小風暴30%25%15%
特大強風暴50%15%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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