查看星期日, 25 7月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jul 25 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 207 在 25 Jul 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 24-2100Z到 25-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 652 (N08W35) produced four M-class events, the largest - an M7/2B flare at 25/0551Z. This flare had associated moderate centimetric bursts, including an 819 sfu Tenflare. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare. No LASCO imagery was available, but it is likely that an Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. Lower, more impulsive M-class flares were observed at 25/0639Z and 25/1349Z. A long duration M1/1f flare erupted in Region 652 at 25/1514Z. Type II (898 km/s) and IV sweeps, and a greater than 10 MeV proton event accompanied this event. An 1818Z LASCO/C3 image exhibits a full halo CME associated with this long duration flare. Region 652 has shown some decay; however, it remains a large and complex beta-gamma-delta sunspot group with white light area coverage exceeding 1200 millionths. New Region 654 (N08E52) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 652 has decayed somewhat, but still maintains good potential for a major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 24-2100Z 至 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm levels. The shock observed at the ACE spacecraft on 24/0600Z was followed by a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz that lasted through midway on 25 July. Bz ranged from -10 to -20 nT for much of this period, while solar wind speed was elevated in the 550 to 700 km/s range. Consequently, severe geomagnetic storm levels were observed at all latitudes. It is likely that this activity was associated with the complex series of CMEs observed on 22 July. Late in this period, a discontinuity in the solar wind suggested that transient flow from the multiple CME activity on 23 July had arrived. A greater than 10 MeV proton event accompanied the long duration M1 flare and CME. The proton event began at 25/1855Z, and the peak so far was 41 pfu at 25/2100Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels. Minor to major storm periods are expected on day one as transient flow from the complex 23 July eruptions are expected to persist through much of 26 July. CMEs associated with today's M7 and long duration M1 flares will likely impact the geomagnetic field on 27 July and produce periods of major storming. Storm levels should subside by 28 July; a return to unsettled to active levels is expected by the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now, is expected to end on 26 July.
III. 事件機率 26 Jul 至 28 Jul
M級70%65%60%
X級20%15%10%
質子90%25%10%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       25 Jul 145
  預測的   26 Jul-28 Jul  140/140/135
  90天平均值        25 Jul 105
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 24 Jul  029/027
  估算值     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  080/090
  預測的    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  050/075-060/055-030/030
VI. 地磁活動機率 26 Jul 至 28 Jul
A. 中緯度
可見35%25%50%
小風暴40%45%25%
特大強風暴25%30%10%
B. 高緯度
可見20%25%55%
小風暴50%50%30%
特大強風暴30%25%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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