查看星期五, 16 7月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jul 16 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 198 在 16 Jul 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 15-2100Z到 16-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E26) produced three X-class flares: an X1 at 0206 UTC, an X1/1f at 1041 UTC, and an X3/3b at 1355 UTC. All of these events were impulsive and none were associated with an obvious CME in the LASCO data. However, a weak type II radio sweep was observed in association with the X3 event. Region 649 has shown some consolidation of spots in the leader and in the trailer areas and the region is maintaining complexity - the delta configuration in the dominant trailer penumbra continues to be the primary location for the flare activity. Two new regions are just visible on the east limb in GOES-12 SXI images at S11 and N05. The region to the north rotated into view at (N05E88) and was assigned SWO region number 652.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance for producing more major flare activity during the next three days (17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 15-2100Z 至 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 2100-2359 on 15 July.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.
III. 事件機率 17 Jul 至 19 Jul
M級75%75%75%
X級35%35%35%
質子15%20%25%
碳核算金融聯盟Green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       16 Jul 147
  預測的   17 Jul-19 Jul  150/150/150
  90天平均值        16 Jul 098
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/009
  估算值     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  010/010
  預測的    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. 地磁活動機率 17 Jul 至 19 Jul
A. 中緯度
可見30%25%25%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見30%30%30%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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