查看星期四, 22 1月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jan 22 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 022 在 22 Jan 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 21-2100Z到 22-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. An impressive filament eruption, seen on SOHO/EIT imagery, was observed early in the period in the solar northwestern quadrant of the disk. An associated CME appears too much north-west directed to become geoeffective. A previous filament eruption (early on 21 Jan) and the associated CME that occurred in the solar southeastern quadrant may produce a weak geoeffective glancing blow. Flare activity was limited to a few low level B-class flares today. Regions 540 (S14W48) and 544 (N08W17) retain a gamma magnetic structure while Regions 542 (N10W29) and 543 (N16W34) appear to have lost their associated gamma features. Decay in penumbral coverage or magnetic structure appeared to be the theme in all the active spotted regions during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 21-2100Z 至 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft around 22/0100Z as the solar wind speed jumped from 475 km/s to near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field held primarily north until near 22/0900Z when a sudden southward movement (which remained south thereafter for several hours) occurred and the ensuing severe storm conditions were seen at all latitudes. A 33 nT sudden impulse was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 22/0140Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels early in the period.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. Higher latitudes may experience isolated minor storm conditions into 23 Jan due to today's shock passage. A glancing blow from the CME resulting from the filament eruption in the solar southeastern quadrant earlier on 21 Jan may produce brief minor storm conditions on 24 Jan. The remainder of the period should experience predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels.
III. 事件機率 23 Jan 至 25 Jan
M級20%20%20%
X級05%05%05%
質子01%01%01%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       22 Jan 122
  預測的   23 Jan-25 Jan  120/120/115
  90天平均值        22 Jan 136
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/012
  估算值     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/065
  預測的    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  015/025-010/015-010/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 23 Jan 至 25 Jan
A. 中緯度
可見30%20%20%
小風暴15%05%05%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見40%30%30%
小風暴20%15%15%
特大強風暴10%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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