查看星期四, 8 1月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jan 08 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 008 在 08 Jan 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 07-2100Z到 08-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1n flare at 0507 UTC from Region 537 (N04E50). The group produced additional small flares throughout the day. Analysis of the region indicates a small, relatively compact group of spots with an inversion line running northeast to southwest and cutting through penumbra, making this a delta class group. Region 536 (S10W16) continues to be the largest group and also has a delta configuration. The region produced a few small flares during the past 24 hours and is slowly decaying. A CME was reported by LASCO over the south solar pole, beginning at 1654 UTC on the 7th, and associated with subsequent relatively faint, large scale post-eruption loop system (visible in EIT 195) just to the west and south of Region 536.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for 09-11 January with Regions 536 and 537 being the most likely source for activity. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing flare from either of these regions during the 09-11 January forecast period.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 07-2100Z 至 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity and Bz was mostly weak during the past 24 hours. The solar wind appears to be transitioning to nominal conditions, probably indicating the end of the recent high speed stream at ACE. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for 09-11 January with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. 事件機率 09 Jan 至 11 Jan
M級70%70%70%
X級20%20%20%
質子10%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       08 Jan 120
  預測的   09 Jan-11 Jan  120/120/125
  90天平均值        08 Jan 137
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 07 Jan  016/032
  估算值     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  010/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 09 Jan 至 11 Jan
A. 中緯度
可見25%25%25%
小風暴15%15%15%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見40%40%40%
小風暴20%20%20%
特大強風暴10%10%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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