查看星期三, 7 1月 2004歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2004 Jan 07 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 007 在 07 Jan 2004 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 06-2100Z到 07-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. An M4 x-ray event occurred at 0404 UTC and an M8 x-ray event occurred at 1027 UTC. Both events were from Region 537 (N07E64) and were associated with type II sweeps and CMEs off the east limb. The region rotated more fully into view today as a small (280 millionths) but bright and magnetically complex sunspot group. Region 536 (S11W02) continues to be the largest group on the disk and is maintaining its beta-gamma-delta configuration. There was some indication today that the region may be slowly decaying. Region 536 could only manage to produce a couple B-class events. Two new, small, simple regions emerged on the disk today: Region 538 (N07E04) and Region 539 (N09E29).
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated major flare activity. Region 537 is expected to remain active and Region 536 still has the potential for producing significant flare activity as well.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 06-2100Z 至 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. An enhancement in the solar wind flow was observed at ACE, beginning 2000 UTC on 06 January. The enhancement consisted of an increase in total field and in solar wind velocity, and included some extended negative Bz intervals in the -1 to -10 nT range. Although the flow was somewhat atypical (low density, high temperature), the signatures appear to be consistent with a CME led by a compression wave and expanding in low density solar wind that originated in association with the M6 x-ray event on 5 January. The slow rotation of Bz from negative to positive during the last 18 hours resulted in a decrease in geomagnetic activity during the last 5-6 hours of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with some minor storm periods for 08 January based on the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Mostly active conditions should predominate on 09 January and a decline to mostly unsettled levels is expected on 10 January.
III. 事件機率 08 Jan 至 10 Jan
M級65%65%65%
X級15%15%15%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       07 Jan 119
  預測的   08 Jan-10 Jan  120/125/125
  90天平均值        07 Jan 135
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 06 Jan  017/020
  估算值     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  030/030
  預測的    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/030-020/020-015/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 08 Jan 至 10 Jan
A. 中緯度
可見35%30%25%
小風暴25%20%15%
特大強風暴15%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見15%25%25%
小風暴50%35%25%
特大強風暴25%20%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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