查看星期一, 24 11月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Nov 24 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 328 在 24 Nov 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 23-2100Z到 24-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was low. Several low C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Region 501 (N03W72) is undergoing considerable decay as it approaches the west limb, but is still producing isolated C-class flares. Region 508 (S17E08) was responsible for most of the low C-class activity. No significant change was noted in this moderately complex region over the last 24 hours. It maintains a beta-gamma configuration in approximately 450 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 507 (N09W03) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but was rather quiet this period. A weak delta configuration is apparent in this spot group with over 700 millionths of areal coverage. New Regions 509 (S10E56) and 510 (S22E62) were numbered today. Region 509 produced a C2/Sf flare at 24/1854Z.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible, primarily from Regions 501, 507, and 508.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 23-2100Z 至 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods in the higher latitudes. A well positioned coronal hole is producing solar wind speeds near 600 km/s, creating a weak disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 26 November. Isolated minor storm levels are also expected, but will be confined mostly to higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 November as the current disturbance subsides.
III. 事件機率 25 Nov 至 27 Nov
M級40%40%30%
X級10%10%05%
質子05%05%05%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       24 Nov 177
  預測的   25 Nov-27 Nov  175/170/160
  90天平均值        24 Nov 132
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 23 Nov  013/021
  估算值     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  015/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 25 Nov 至 27 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見40%40%30%
小風暴20%20%15%
特大強風暴05%05%01%
B. 高緯度
可見50%50%40%
小風暴25%25%20%
特大強風暴10%10%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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