查看星期二, 4 11月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Nov 04 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 308 在 04 Nov 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 03-2100Z到 04-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 486 (S17W89) has been rotating off the visible disk today. Even so, as a parting display of it's massive size and complicated magnetic structure, it managed to produce one of the largest x-ray flares on record, an X17(plus)/3b flare at 04/1929Z. The x-ray sensor on GOES was saturated at X17.4 between 04/1944 and 1956Z. Intense radio busts were observed at all frequencies, a Tenflare (at 20000 sfu's), and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1268 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Indications of an extremely fast moving (2301 km/s) full halo CME were seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region also produced an M2 flare at 04/0556Z and an M1 flare at 04/1349Z. Region 488 (N08W95) produced an M3 x-ray flare as it rotated off the visible disk earlier in the period. Region 497 (N10W45) was newly numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Region 486 is still capable of producing an isolated major flare even though it will have rotated off the visible disk throughout day one. Days two and three may see moderate levels.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 03-2100Z 至 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage occurred at the ACE satellite at approximately 04/0600Z due to the CME from the X8 event on 02 Nov. A sudden impulse of 72 nT was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 04/0627Z. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained north though most of the day; however, an isolated period of severe storm conditions were observed from 04/0900 to 1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been on a steady decrease through the period and continue above alert levels; the event began at 02/1105Z, and had a maximum of 1570 pfu's which was observed at 03/0815Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible during day one due to the elevated wind speeds from the shock passage from earlier today. Day two's activity may stay enhanced due to a glancing blow from the X17 (plus) flare from today. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are currently above alert levels and are expected to be further enhanced due to today's X17 (plus) event. The greater than 100 MeV fluxes are also expected to rise above alert levels early on day one of the period due to the aforementioned activity.
III. 事件機率 05 Nov 至 07 Nov
M級70%30%10%
X級40%10%01%
質子99%50%25%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       04 Nov 168
  預測的   05 Nov-07 Nov  140/130/125
  90天平均值        04 Nov 132
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/010
  估算值     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/030
  預測的    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  020/030-020/030-010/020
VI. 地磁活動機率 05 Nov 至 07 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見35%35%20%
小風暴20%20%10%
特大強風暴10%10%05%
B. 高緯度
可見45%45%25%
小風暴35%35%15%
特大強風暴20%20%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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