查看星期六, 1 11月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 305 在 01 Nov 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 31-2100Z到 01-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1 x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z. Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little during the period and continues to depict a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight, yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 31-2100Z 至 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period, approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing) while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and 3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. 事件機率 02 Nov 至 04 Nov
M級70%70%60%
X級35%30%25%
質子50%35%15%
碳核算金融聯盟yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       01 Nov 210
  預測的   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
  90天平均值        01 Nov 130
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
  估算值     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
  預測的    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 02 Nov 至 04 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見25%20%20%
小風暴10%10%10%
特大強風暴05%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見35%25%25%
小風暴20%15%10%
特大強風暴10%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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