查看星期五, 31 10月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Oct 31 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 304 在 31 Oct 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 30-2100Z到 31-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 488 (N08W42) produced an M1/Sf at 31/0616Z and occasional C-class flares throughout the period. This region maintains considerable size and complexity, but has yet to produce a major flare. An M2 flare was observed at 31/0433Z. Space-based imagery indicates that the source was likely behind the west limb (probably old Region 484 at N03, L=355). Huge Region 486 (S17W36) is finally showing some signs of decay. Activity this period was limited to occasional C-class flares. Despite its relative calm, this region still maintains a very complex magnetic structure in over 2000 millionths of white light areal coverage. New Region 496 (S12E09) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Though some decay was noted in Region 486, it still maintains potential for a major solar flare. Region 488 also contains potential for a major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 30-2100Z 至 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. The intense geomagnetic storm that began at around 30/1600Z, continued well into this period. Severe storm levels persisted from 30/2100Z through 31/0900Z. Mostly active to major storm periods occurred through the latter half of the period. Solar radiation contamination on the ACE SWEPAM instrument finally ended at 31/0052Z. Solar wind speed was at an exceptionally high 1200 km/s, but has been in a gradual decline, ending the period at over 800 km/s. The prolonged periods of southward IMF Bz that occurred early in the period have ended. Bz has been mostly northward since 31/0200Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event in progress since 28/1145Z, ended at 31/0145Z. This prolonged high energy proton event was actually two distinct events associated with the X17 and X10 flares on the 28th and 29th respectively. The peak measurements for both events were 186 pfu at 29/0015Z and 110 pfu at 29/2310Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, but is quickly declining to the 10 pfu alert threshold. The two peak measurements at 10 MeV were 29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z and 3300 pfu at 30/1935Z. The PCA event has ended.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through 1 November. Isolated major storm periods are possible at higher latitudes due to the very elevated solar wind speeds. The 2nd and 3rd of November should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on the 28th is expected to end on 1 November.
III. 事件機率 01 Nov 至 03 Nov
M級75%70%60%
X級40%35%30%
質子99%50%20%
碳核算金融聯盟Yellow
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       31 Oct 249
  預測的   01 Nov-03 Nov  240/230/220
  90天平均值        31 Oct 130
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 30 Oct  144/162
  估算值     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  075/110
  預測的    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  025/040-010/015-010/010
VI. 地磁活動機率 01 Nov 至 03 Nov
A. 中緯度
可見50%25%25%
小風暴20%10%10%
特大強風暴05%01%01%
B. 高緯度
可見60%30%30%
小風暴30%15%15%
特大強風暴10%05%05%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀

最新新聞

請支持 SpaceWeatherLive.com!

有非常多網友來到SpaceWeatherLive追蹤太陽活動,或確認是否能看見極光,但隨著網站流量增長,維持伺服器的費用也越來越高。如果你喜愛SpaceWeatherLive,可以考慮捐贈維護費用,如此我們可以一起讓網站持續上線!

76%
透過購買我們的商品來支持SpaceWeatherLive
查看我們的商品

最新警報

取得即時警報

太空天氣大事紀

上一個 X-閃焰10/06/2024X1.55
上一個 M-閃焰10/06/2024M9.56
上一個 地球磁爆07/06/2024Kp6 (G2)
無黑子天數
上一個無黑子日08/06/2022
黑子數月平均
5月 2024171.7 +35.2
6月 2024166.9 -4.8
過去 30 天內152.8 -23.5

歷史上的今天*

太陽閃焰
12003X1.06
22014M4.52
32014M3.93
42003M3.84
52014M2.99
ApG
1199089G4
2200554G3
3199166G3
4198259G3
5199240G2
*始於1994

社群網站