查看星期二, 28 10月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Oct 28 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 301 在 28 Oct 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 27-2100Z到 28-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity continues at high levels. Region 486 (S17E04) produced one of the largest flares of this solar cycle, an X17/4B proton flare peaking at 28/1110Z. This flare had intense radio bursts including a 245 MhZ burst near 500,000 sfu and a Tenflare of 13,000 pfu. A very fast (near 2000 km/s), earthward directed full halo CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Region 486, a beta-gamma-delta group with over 2100 millionths of white light areal coverage, is now one of the largest and most complex active regions of solar cycle 23. Region 484 (N03W68) maintains considerable size and complexity as it approaches the west limb. It produced occasional C-class activity and a low M-class flare at 28/1613Z. Region 488 (N08W04) continues its rapid growth and now exceeds 800 millionths of coverage in a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Frequent C-class flare activity was observed in this region throughout the period. New region 493 (N09E05) was numbered today.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce further major flare activity. An isolated major flare is also possible from Regions 484 and 488.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 27-2100Z 至 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A CME was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 0130Z. Solar wind speed rose to near 800 km/s, but Bz stayed northward, thwarting a significant geomagnetic response. The X17 flare that occurred at 28/1110Z produced proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV which remain in progress at this time. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 28/1145Z with a maximum so far of 176 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 28/1215Z with a maximum so far of 6020 pfu. A polar cap absorption began at 28/1237Z and remains in progress.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to potentially severe storming in the next 24 to 48 hours. Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast halo CME that will likely impact the Earth's magnetic field by midday on day one. Past events of this magnitude have almost always produced severe storming. The storm is expected to continue through at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton event will likely persist through day three.
III. 事件機率 29 Oct 至 31 Oct
M級90%90%90%
X級50%50%50%
質子99%99%75%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       28 Oct 274
  預測的   29 Oct-31 Oct  270/260/250
  90天平均值        28 Oct 124
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/015
  估算值     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  015/018
  預測的    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  080/100-100/120-015/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 29 Oct 至 31 Oct
A. 中緯度
可見15%15%50%
小風暴25%25%15%
特大強風暴60%60%05%
B. 高緯度
可見10%10%50%
小風暴20%20%25%
特大強風暴70%70%10%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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