查看星期日, 19 10月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Oct 19 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 292 在 19 Oct 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 18-2100Z到 19-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was high. Region 484 (N06E54) produced an X1/1n flare starting at 1629 UTC, with maximum at 1650 UTC and ending at 1704 UTC. The flare was accompanied by strong radio bursts, a type II radio sweep, and was associated with a coronal mass ejection. The CME was observed in LASCO-C2 off the northeast limb beginning at 1708 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of about 500 km/s. Region 484 also produced two M1 flares: one at 0626 UTC, the other at 1926 UTC. The region also produced a C6/1f at 18/2218 UTC that was associated with a CME off the southeast limb around 18/2230 UTC. Neither of these CMEs appear to have any earthward directed component. Region 484 grew dramatically during the past 24 hours from 240 millionths at the start of the day to just over 1000 millionths by forecast issue time. This remarkable emergence of new flux led to the formation of a strong delta configuration across a northeast-to-southwest polarity inversion line which was also the location of the most intense emission from the X1 flare event.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate for the next three days, with Region 484 as the dominant source of activity. There is a chance for more major flare activity from Region 484, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 18-2100Z 至 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. A jump in solar wind velocity from 540 km/s to 600 km/s was observed around 2200 UTC. However, the solar wind signatures continue to be consistent with a high-speed coronal driven wind stream. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field continues to oscillate around an average value of about -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, increasing to mostly active with minor storm periods on the second day, and returning back to unsettled to active for the third day. The increase on day two is expected as a response to the particular morphology of a coronal hole rotating across the western part of the solar disk. A glancing blow from the partial-halo CME of 18/1554 UTC may also contribute to activity on day two.
III. 事件機率 20 Oct 至 22 Oct
M級70%70%70%
X級15%15%15%
質子10%10%10%
碳核算金融聯盟green
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       19 Oct 120
  預測的   20 Oct-22 Oct  125/130/130
  90天平均值        19 Oct 115
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 18 Oct  015/027
  估算值     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  015/025
  預測的    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/020-020/030-015/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 20 Oct 至 22 Oct
A. 中緯度
可見30%35%35%
小風暴25%30%30%
特大強風暴10%20%10%
B. 高緯度
可見35%25%35%
小風暴30%40%35%
特大強風暴15%25%15%

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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