查看星期三, 18 6月 2003歷史檔案

太陽活動報表

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子,據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除,以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2003 Jun 18 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製,並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 169 在 18 Jun 2003 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 17-2100Z到 18-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 386 (S07E43) produced an M6.8 x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) at 17/2255Z that had an associated Tenflare (2100 sfu), Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (an estimated shock velocity of 1000 km/sec). This region showed growth in the magnetic structure surrounding the dominant lead spot as a delta complex has become evident since yesterday. The penumbral field coverage has changed little over the period. Newly numbered Region 387 (N18E62) produced several minor flares during the interval.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 386 has the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 17-2100Z 至 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly minor to major storm levels with an isolated period of severe storm conditions seen at high latitudes between 18/0600 and 0900Z. A co-rotating integrated region preceding a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and is believed to responsible for the storm conditions. The greater than 10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached event threshold at 18/2050Z and due to the recent activity the exact source for this particle event is not certain.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated major storm conditions are possible on day one due to the potential for transient activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should remain above threshold level through the first day of the interval.
III. 事件機率 19 Jun 至 21 Jun
M級60%60%60%
X級20%20%20%
質子99%50%25%
碳核算金融聯盟in progress
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
  觀測的       18 Jun 120
  預測的   19 Jun-21 Jun  120/120/120
  90天平均值        18 Jun 125
V. 地磁 A 指數
  觀測的 Afr/Ap 17 Jun  030/050
  估算值     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  035/050
  預測的    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  025/035-020/025-020/025
VI. 地磁活動機率 19 Jun 至 21 Jun
A. 中緯度
可見40%50%50%
小風暴30%20%20%
特大強風暴15%05%05%
B. 高緯度
可見40%50%50%
小風暴40%30%30%
特大強風暴20%10%10%
VII. PLAIN To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) will become the primary satellite for protons. The transition from GOES 8 to GOES 11 was scheduled for 18 June, but has been delayed until 19 June. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. MAGNETOMETER On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

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